The €39 Billion Secret: Why Deutsche Bank Might Be Europe's Most Misunderstood Trade
How a failed correlation thesis led me to discover a hidden defense lending machine worth 31% of the bank's market cap
“The most profitable investment actions are by definition contrarian: you’re buying when everyone else is selling (and the price is thus low) or you’re selling when everyone else is buying (and the price is high). These actions are lonely and uncomfortable.” — Howard Marks
The Setup: When Your Thesis Blows Up in Your Face
Three months ago, I had what I thought was a genius idea.
Germany announced a historic €100 billion defense spending package. Rheinmetall stock was going parabolic. The entire European defense sector was printing money. And I thought: “Who else benefits when German defense contractors get paid?”
