Is it time to Sell Silver?
A quantitative deep-dive into SLV's historic overextension - and why the data says NOT YET
Silver SLV 0.00%↑ is currently trading at $68.99 (+5.78% Today) - sitting at a Z-score of +4.73 standard deviations above its 20-day moving average. For context, this is 99.9th percentile territory. The asset is 78% above its 200-day moving average.
By any classical technical analysis measure, this screams “overextended.”
So naturally, I wanted to short it.
“The best time to predict when a trend is slowing is when the other side is feeling maximum pain. When longs are stretched to the absolute limit, that’s when reversals happen. When shorts are getting squeezed relentlessly, that’s when trends persist.” — Eric Peters, One River Asset Management
The Framework: When Does a Trend End?
This resonated with me. Silver feels like shorts should be feeling maximum pain - the move has been parabolic, anyone who faded it got destroyed, and every technical indicator is flashing “overbought” yet it keeps grinding higher.
